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Just days after hurricane season begins, it’s possible the first tropical system of the season could form

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June marks the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season, a significant time for meteorologists and coastal residents. As the calendar turns to this month, vigilance and preparedness become paramount. This article delves into the potential tropical development in the Caribbean, the role of above-average sea surface temperatures, AccuWeather’s detailed predictions, and essential preparedness measures for coastal residents. It also explores AccuWeather’s intricate methodologies for forecasting these powerful natural phenomena.

The Start of Hurricane Season

Importance of June for Meteorologists and Coastal Residents

June heralds the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season until November. This period is crucial for both meteorologists and coastal residents. For meteorologists, it signals the time to intensify monitoring atmospheric and oceanic conditions, tracking potential storm developments with increased rigor. On the other hand, Coastal residents are reminded to begin or review their preparedness plans, ensuring they are ready to face the potential onslaught of hurricanes and tropical storms.

Early Season Dynamics

While the start of the season does not guarantee immediate storm formation, the conditions become increasingly favorable for such developments. Historical data shows that early-season storms, although less frequent, can still pose significant threats. Therefore, the onset of June serves as a wake-up call for heightened awareness and preparedness.

Potential Tropical Development in the Caribbean

Monitoring and Forecasting

Meteorologists are closely monitoring the Caribbean for signs of tropical development. The region’s climatic and geographical conditions make it a hotspot for early storm formation. By scrutinizing weather patterns, sea surface temperatures, and atmospheric conditions, forecasters aim to provide early warnings to mitigate the impacts of any developing storms.

Factors Favoring Development

Several factors contribute to the potential for tropical development in June:

  • Warm Sea Surface Temperatures: Warmer waters in the Caribbean provide the necessary energy and moisture for storm development.
  • Atmospheric Conditions: Favorable wind patterns and low vertical wind shear create an environment conducive to the formation and intensification of tropical systems.

Above Average Sea Temperatures

Impact on Storm Development

Above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are crucial to heightened tropical activity. Warmer waters can lead to more vigorous storm development by providing additional heat and moisture to the atmosphere. This increased energy can fuel stronger convection currents, leading to the formation of more powerful storms.

Historical Comparisons

Historically, years with above-average sea surface temperatures have seen more intense and frequent storm activity. This trend underscores the importance of monitoring ocean temperatures as a predictor of seasonal hurricane activity.

AccuWeather Predictions

Forecast Overview

AccuWeather’s forecasts for the 2024 hurricane season indicate a potentially very active period. The prediction includes:

  • 20-25 Named Storms: A significant number of named storms are expected, suggesting a busy season ahead.
  • 8-12 Hurricanes: Out of the named storms, a considerable proportion is predicted to develop into hurricanes.
  • 4-7 Major Hurricanes: A notable number of these hurricanes could reach category three or higher, with winds exceeding 111 mph.

Implications for Coastal Areas

The forecasted activity highlights the need for coastal areas to be prepared for potential impacts. The increased likelihood of severe weather events necessitates robust emergency response plans and community readiness.

Preparedness Measures

Importance of Preparedness

Preparedness is emphasized over panic. Coastal residents are encouraged to take proactive steps to ensure their safety and minimize the impact of storms. Effective preparedness can significantly reduce the risks and damages associated with hurricanes.

Steps to Prepare

Coastal residents can take several measures to prepare for the hurricane season:

  1. Create an Emergency Plan:
    • Develop a detailed plan that includes evacuation routes, communication strategies, and a list of essential contacts.
    • Ensure all family members are aware of the plan and know their roles.
  2. Build an Emergency Kit:
    • Assemble a kit with water, non-perishable food, medications, flashlights, batteries, and important documents.
    • Consider the needs of pets and include items like pet food and medications.
  3. Secure Property:
    • Reinforce windows and doors to withstand high winds.
    • Trim trees and shrubs to minimize debris.
    • Secure outdoor furniture and equipment to prevent them from becoming projectiles.
  4. Stay Informed:
    • Keep up-to-date with weather forecasts and alerts from trusted sources like the National Hurricane Center and local authorities.
    • Subscribe to alert systems that provide real-time updates.
  5. Insurance Check:
    • Review and update insurance policies to ensure adequate coverage for potential hurricane-related damage.
    • Understand what is covered and consider additional flood insurance if necessary.
  6. Community Resources:
    • Familiarize yourself with local shelters and community resources available during an evacuation or emergency.
    • Participate in community preparedness initiatives and stay connected with neighbors.

Insights Based on Numbers

Predicted Storm Impacts

AccuWeather’s predictions of 4-6 direct impacts from storms emphasize the importance of preparedness. The likelihood of storms affecting populated areas means that residents must remain vigilant and ready to act.

Activity Levels

The forecast of 20-25 named storms suggests a highly active hurricane season, potentially leading to significant disruptions. Understanding the potential scope of these disruptions can help in better planning and resource allocation.

Severity of Hurricanes

The prediction of 8-12 hurricanes, with 4-7 being major hurricanes, highlights the potential for severe weather events. Major hurricanes can cause widespread damage and require extensive emergency response measures. Communities must be prepared to deal with the aftermath, including power outages, flooding, and infrastructure damage.

Influence of Sea Surface Temperatures on Hurricane Development

Mechanisms of Influence

Above-average sea surface temperatures significantly influence hurricane development. Warmer waters provide more energy and moisture to the atmosphere, fueling more substantial and sustained convection currents. This increased energy can lead to the formation of more powerful storms.

Extended Hurricane Season

Higher sea surface temperatures can extend the period during which hurricanes form and maintain their strength. This extension contributes to a more prolonged and potentially more intense hurricane season, with the possibility of late-season storms causing significant impacts.

Historical Context

Historical data shows a clear correlation between warmer sea surface temperatures and increased hurricane activity. Analyzing past trends helps meteorologists refine their predictions and provide more accurate forecasts.

Measures for Coastal Residents

Creating an Emergency Plan

Developing a comprehensive emergency plan is the first step in hurricane preparedness. This plan should include:

  • Evacuation Routes: Identify safe evacuation routes and practice them with family members.
  • Communication Strategies: Establish a communication plan to stay in touch with family and friends during an emergency.
  • Essential Contacts: Keep a list of important contacts, including local emergency services, utilities, and insurance providers.

Building an Emergency Kit

An emergency kit is essential for survival during and after a hurricane. Key items to include are:

  • Water: At least one gallon per person daily for at least three days.
  • Non-perishable Food: A three-day supply of food that does not require refrigeration or cooking.
  • Medications: A supply of essential medicines and medical supplies.
  • Flashlights and Batteries: Reliable light sources and extra batteries.
  • Essential Documents: Copies of important documents, such as insurance policies, identification, and bank records.

Securing Property

Taking steps to secure property can reduce the risk of damage. Measures include:

  • Reinforcing Windows and Doors: Use storm shutters or plywood to protect windows and doors.
  • Trimming Trees and Shrubs: Remove dead or weak branches that could become projectiles.
  • Securing Outdoor Furniture: Bring or secure outdoor furniture, grills, and other items that strong winds could blow away.

Staying Informed

Staying informed is crucial for timely action. Residents should:

  • Monitor Weather Reports: Regularly check updates from reliable sources.
  • Sign Up for Alerts: Enroll in local alert systems for real-time information.
  • Follow Official Guidance: Adhere to instructions from local authorities and emergency services.

Reviewing Insurance Policies

Ensuring adequate insurance coverage is vital for financial protection. Steps include:

  • Reviewing Coverage: Understand what is covered under current policies and make necessary adjustments.
  • Considering Flood Insurance: Many standard policies do not cover flood damage, so that additional coverage may be needed.

Utilizing Community Resources

Community resources can provide crucial support during a hurricane. Actions to take are:

  • Identifying Shelters: Know the locations of local shelters and their capacities.
  • Engaging with Community Groups: Participate in community preparedness activities and connect with neighbors.

AccuWeather’s Prediction Methodology

Historical Data Analysis

AccuWeather uses historical data analysis to identify trends and correlations influencing hurricane activity. Forecasters can better understand the factors that drive storm development by examining past weather patterns, storm tracks, and sea surface temperature records.

Climate Models

Advanced climate models simulate atmospheric conditions and predict how various factors interact, such as sea surface temperatures and wind patterns. These models help forecast the formation and intensity of hurricanes.

Real-time Data

Monitoring real-time data from satellites, buoys, and weather stations provides up-to-date information on weather conditions and potential storm development. This real-time data is crucial for accurate and timely forecasts.

Expert Meteorologists

Experienced meteorologists interpret the data and models to provide expert insights. Their expertise helps refine forecasts based on evolving conditions, ensuring predictions are as accurate as possible.

Risk Assessment

AccuWeather assesses the risk of impact based on storms’ predicted path and intensity. This assessment considers factors such as population density, infrastructure vulnerability, and historical impact data.

Communication

AccuWeather communicates its forecasts through various platforms, including its website, mobile apps, and media partners. This ensures that the public and decision-makers can access information in a timely manner.

Conclusion

The start of the hurricane season in June is a critical reminder for meteorologists and coastal residents to remain vigilant and prepared. With above-average sea surface temperatures and AccuWeather predicting a highly active season, the potential for significant storm activity is high. Coastal residents must take proactive steps to ensure their safety and minimize the impacts of hurricanes. By understanding the factors that influence storm development, following preparedness measures, and staying informed through reliable sources, communities can better withstand the challenges of the hurricane season.

AccuWeather Daily – Forecasters Watching the Caribbean for Potential Tropical Development in June

Meta Description: June marks the beginning of the hurricane season, and AccuWeather is closely monitoring potential tropical developments in the Caribbean. Learn about the role of sea temperatures, predictions, and preparedness measures.

Introduction

June marks the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season, a significant time for meteorologists and coastal residents. As the calendar turns to this month, vigilance and preparedness become paramount. This article delves into the potential tropical development in the Caribbean, the role of above-average sea surface temperatures, AccuWeather’s detailed predictions, and essential preparedness measures for coastal residents. It also explores AccuWeather’s intricate methodologies for forecasting these powerful natural phenomena.

The Start of Hurricane Season

Importance of June for Meteorologists and Coastal Residents

June heralds the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season until November. This period is crucial for both meteorologists and coastal residents. For meteorologists, it signals the time to intensify monitoring atmospheric and oceanic conditions, tracking potential storm developments with increased rigor. On the other hand, Coastal residents are reminded to begin or review their preparedness plans, ensuring they are ready to face the potential onslaught of hurricanes and tropical storms.

Early Season Dynamics

While the start of the season does not guarantee immediate storm formation, the conditions become increasingly favorable for such developments. Historical data shows that early-season storms, although less frequent, can still pose significant threats. Therefore, the onset of June serves as a wake-up call for heightened awareness and preparedness.

Potential Tropical Development in the Caribbean

Monitoring and Forecasting

Meteorologists are closely monitoring the Caribbean for signs of tropical development. The region’s climatic and geographical conditions make it a hotspot for early storm formation. By scrutinizing weather patterns, sea surface temperatures, and atmospheric conditions, forecasters aim to provide early warnings to mitigate the impacts of any developing storms.

Factors Favoring Development

Several factors contribute to the potential for tropical development in June:

  • Warm Sea Surface Temperatures: Warmer waters in the Caribbean provide the necessary energy and moisture for storm development.
  • Atmospheric Conditions: Favorable wind patterns and low vertical wind shear create an environment conducive to the formation and intensification of tropical systems.

Above Average Sea Temperatures

Impact on Storm Development

Above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are crucial to heightened tropical activity. Warmer waters can lead to more vigorous storm development by providing additional heat and moisture to the atmosphere. This increased energy can fuel stronger convection currents, leading to the formation of more powerful storms.

Historical Comparisons

Historically, years with above-average sea surface temperatures have seen more intense and frequent storm activity. This trend underscores the importance of monitoring ocean temperatures as a predictor of seasonal hurricane activity.

AccuWeather Predictions

Forecast Overview

AccuWeather’s forecasts for the 2024 hurricane season indicate a potentially very active period. The prediction includes:

  • 20-25 Named Storms: A significant number of named storms are expected, suggesting a busy season ahead.
  • 8-12 Hurricanes: Out of the named storms, a considerable proportion is predicted to develop into hurricanes.
  • 4-7 Major Hurricanes: A notable number of these hurricanes could reach category three or higher, with winds exceeding 111 mph.

Implications for Coastal Areas

The forecasted activity highlights the need for coastal areas to be prepared for potential impacts. The increased likelihood of severe weather events necessitates robust emergency response plans and community readiness.

Preparedness Measures

Importance of Preparedness

Preparedness is emphasized over panic. Coastal residents are encouraged to take proactive steps to ensure their safety and minimize the impact of storms. Effective preparedness can significantly reduce the risks and damages associated with hurricanes.

Steps to Prepare

Coastal residents can take several measures to prepare for the hurricane season:

  1. Create an Emergency Plan:
    • Develop a detailed plan that includes evacuation routes, communication strategies, and a list of essential contacts.
    • Ensure all family members are aware of the plan and know their roles.
  2. Build an Emergency Kit:
    • Assemble a kit with water, non-perishable food, medications, flashlights, batteries, and important documents.
    • Consider the needs of pets and include items like pet food and medications.
  3. Secure Property:
    • Reinforce windows and doors to withstand high winds.
    • Trim trees and shrubs to minimize debris.
    • Secure outdoor furniture and equipment to prevent them from becoming projectiles.
  4. Stay Informed:
    • Keep up-to-date with weather forecasts and alerts from trusted sources like the National Hurricane Center and local authorities.
    • Subscribe to alert systems that provide real-time updates.
  5. Insurance Check:
    • Review and update insurance policies to ensure adequate coverage for potential hurricane-related damage.
    • Understand what is covered and consider additional flood insurance if necessary.
  6. Community Resources:
    • Familiarize yourself with local shelters and community resources available during an evacuation or emergency.
    • Participate in community preparedness initiatives and stay connected with neighbors.

Insights Based on Numbers

Predicted Storm Impacts

AccuWeather’s predictions of 4-6 direct impacts from storms emphasize the importance of preparedness. The likelihood of storms affecting populated areas means that residents must remain vigilant and ready to act.

Activity Levels

The forecast of 20-25 named storms suggests a highly active hurricane season, potentially leading to significant disruptions. Understanding the potential scope of these disruptions can help in better planning and resource allocation.

Severity of Hurricanes

The prediction of 8-12 hurricanes, with 4-7 being major hurricanes, highlights the potential for severe weather events. Major hurricanes can cause widespread damage and require extensive emergency response measures. Communities must be prepared to deal with the aftermath, including power outages, flooding, and infrastructure damage.

Influence of Sea Surface Temperatures on Hurricane Development

Mechanisms of Influence

Above-average sea surface temperatures significantly influence hurricane development. Warmer waters provide more energy and moisture to the atmosphere, fueling more substantial and sustained convection currents. This increased energy can lead to the formation of more powerful storms.

Extended Hurricane Season

Higher sea surface temperatures can extend the period during which hurricanes form and maintain their strength. This extension contributes to a more prolonged and potentially more intense hurricane season, with the possibility of late-season storms causing significant impacts.

Historical Context

Historical data shows a clear correlation between warmer sea surface temperatures and increased hurricane activity. Analyzing past trends helps meteorologists refine their predictions and provide more accurate forecasts.

Measures for Coastal Residents

Creating an Emergency Plan

Developing a comprehensive emergency plan is the first step in hurricane preparedness. This plan should include:

  • Evacuation Routes: Identify safe evacuation routes and practice them with family members.
  • Communication Strategies: Establish a communication plan to stay in touch with family and friends during an emergency.
  • Essential Contacts: Keep a list of important contacts, including local emergency services, utilities, and insurance providers.

Building an Emergency Kit

An emergency kit is essential for survival during and after a hurricane. Key items to include are:

  • Water: At least one gallon per person daily for at least three days.
  • Non-perishable Food: A three-day supply of food that does not require refrigeration or cooking.
  • Medications: A supply of essential medicines and medical supplies.
  • Flashlights and Batteries: Reliable light sources and extra batteries.
  • Essential Documents: Copies of important documents, such as insurance policies, identification, and bank records.

Securing Property

Taking steps to secure property can reduce the risk of damage. Measures include:

  • Reinforcing Windows and Doors: Use storm shutters or plywood to protect windows and doors.
  • Trimming Trees and Shrubs: Remove dead or weak branches that could become projectiles.
  • Securing Outdoor Furniture: Bring or secure outdoor furniture, grills, and other items that strong winds could blow away.

Staying Informed

Staying informed is crucial for timely action. Residents should:

  • Monitor Weather Reports: Regularly check updates from reliable sources.
  • Sign Up for Alerts: Enroll in local alert systems for real-time information.
  • Follow Official Guidance: Adhere to instructions from local authorities and emergency services.

Reviewing Insurance Policies

Ensuring adequate insurance coverage is vital for financial protection. Steps include:

  • Reviewing Coverage: Understand what is covered under current policies and make necessary adjustments.
  • Considering Flood Insurance: Many standard policies do not cover flood damage, so that additional coverage may be needed.

Utilizing Community Resources

Community resources can provide crucial support during a hurricane. Actions to take are:

  • Identifying Shelters: Know the locations of local shelters and their capacities.
  • Engaging with Community Groups: Participate in community preparedness activities and connect with neighbors.

AccuWeather’s Prediction Methodology

Historical Data Analysis

AccuWeather uses historical data analysis to identify trends and correlations influencing hurricane activity. Forecasters can better understand the factors that drive storm development by examining past weather patterns, storm tracks, and sea surface temperature records.

Climate Models

Advanced climate models simulate atmospheric conditions and predict how various factors interact, such as sea surface temperatures and wind patterns. These models help forecast the formation and intensity of hurricanes.

Real-time Data

Monitoring real-time data from satellites, buoys, and weather stations provides up-to-date information on weather conditions and potential storm development. This real-time data is crucial for accurate and timely forecasts.

Expert Meteorologists

Experienced meteorologists interpret the data and models to provide expert insights. Their expertise helps refine forecasts based on evolving conditions, ensuring predictions are as accurate as possible.

Risk Assessment

AccuWeather assesses the risk of impact based on storms’ predicted path and intensity. This assessment considers factors such as population density, infrastructure vulnerability, and historical impact data.

Communication

AccuWeather communicates its forecasts through various platforms, including its website, mobile apps, and media partners. This ensures that the public and decision-makers can access information in a timely manner.

FAQs

What is the start date of the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1 and lasts until November 30.

Why is June significant for hurricane season?

June marks the beginning of the hurricane season, prompting meteorologists to intensify monitoring and coastal residents to prepare for potential storms.

How do warm sea surface temperatures affect hurricanes?

Warm sea surface temperatures provide the energy and moisture necessary for storm development, leading to more vigorous and potentially powerful storms.

What are some key preparedness steps for coastal residents?

Coastal residents should create an emergency plan, build an emergency kit, secure their property, stay informed about weather updates, review their insurance policies, and utilize community resources.

How does AccuWeather predict hurricane activity?

AccuWeather predicts hurricane activity using a combination of historical data analysis, advanced climate models, real-time data monitoring, and expert meteorologists.

What are the expected storm numbers for the 2024 hurricane season?

AccuWeather predicts 20-25 named storms, 8-12 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes for the 2024 hurricane season.

Conclusion

The start of the hurricane season in June is a critical reminder for meteorologists and coastal residents to remain vigilant and prepared. With above-average sea surface temperatures and AccuWeather predicting a highly active season, the potential for significant storm activity is high. Coastal residents must take proactive steps to ensure their safety and minimize the impacts of hurricanes. By understanding the factors that influence storm development, following preparedness measures, and staying informed through reliable sources, communities can better withstand the challenges of the hurricane season.

From:
Date: May 31, 2024
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